{
  "commodity": "Fish Meal",
  "slug": "fish-meal",
  "url": "https://xin.bz/commodities/fish-meal/",
  "title": "Fish Meal Is the High-Protein Feed Commodity Whose Global Supply Can Turn on One Peruvian Fishery",
  "description": "Fish meal deep dive — Peru's anchovy fishery supplies ~20% of a 5.1M t market, the 2026 season stopped at 25% of quota under a 120-day national emergency, China takes 78% of exports, and prices hit $2,105/mt.",
  "published": "2026-08-28",
  "updated": "2026-08-28",
  "section": "Global Commodity Insight",
  "series": null,
  "category": null,
  "author": "Xin.bz Global Commodity Insight",
  "period": "2026",
  "tags": [
    "fish meal",
    "fishmeal",
    "anchoveta",
    "aquaculture",
    "animal feed",
    "Peru",
    "Chile",
    "China",
    "El Niño",
    "Humboldt Current",
    "fish oil",
    "shrimp feed",
    "salmon feed",
    "protein markets"
  ],
  "keyPoints": [
    "Fish meal is a concentrated protein ingredient produced by cooking, pressing, drying, grinding, and stabilizing fish or fish-processing by-products.",
    "Global fish-meal supply runs above 5.1 MMT in an average year, and Peru supplies about 20% of it.",
    "2026 is a supply-shock year. Peru's first North-Central anchovy quota was 1.914 MMT, but fishing stopped June 10 after only about 25% of the quota was caught.",
    "Peru declared its fishing and aquaculture sectors in a 120-day national emergency on August 24 because of El Niño 2026–27.",
    "China took 999,000 tonnes, or 78%, of Peru's 2025 fish-meal exports and remains the central demand market.",
    "The World Bank fish-meal benchmark reached $2,105/mt in July 2026, 22.2% above July 2025.",
    "Peruvian Super fish meal in China was quoted at RMB 22,400–22,500/mt on August 26.",
    "Soybean meal is the largest substitute, but fish meal retains premium value in feeds that require high protein density, digestibility, palatability, and marine nutrients."
  ],
  "bodyFormat": "markdown",
  "body": "*Commodity Deep Dive — part of the Xin.bz Global Commodity Insight series.\nSee also: [Soybeans](/commodities/soybeans/).*\n\n## Commodity classification\n\n| Classification | Fish Meal |\n|---|---|\n| **Rare Earth Element** | **No** |\n| **Strategic Resource** | **Yes — Aquaculture & Feed Security**. Fish meal is a concentrated, highly digestible marine protein used in aquaculture, livestock, and specialty feeds. |\n| **Agricultural Industry** | **Primary** — aquaculture and animal feed dominate consumption. |\n| **Manufacturing Industry** | **Material / Secondary** — fish meal is manufactured through cooking, pressing, drying, grinding, and stabilization. |\n| **Communications Industry** | **None** |\n| **Defense Industry** | **None / Indirect food-security relevance** |\n| **Space Industry** | **None** |\n| **Hazardous Transport** | **Moderate** — stabilized fish meal can self-heat during long marine transport and carries specific maritime dangerous-goods controls. |\n| **Rail Transport** | **Secondary** — used after import and in regional feed distribution. |\n| **Sea Transport** | **Primary** — Peru, Chile, and other producers ship fish meal internationally in bulk, bags, and containers. |\n| **Land / Road Transport** | **Primary** — raw fish moves rapidly to reduction plants; finished meal moves to ports and feed mills by truck. |\n| **Air Transport** | **None for commercial bulk** — small stabilized samples can move by air under hazardous-material rules. |\n| **Market Volatility** | **High** — fish biomass, quotas, El Niño, aquaculture demand, and substitute-protein prices create sharp supply and price swings. |\n| **Demand Seasonality** | **Moderate** — aquaculture feeding cycles and Chinese stocking patterns create seasonal demand. |\n| **Supply Seasonality** | **High** — catches depend on regulated fishing seasons, quotas, spawning, biomass surveys, and ocean conditions. |\n| **Top Producer** | **Peru — Structural**. Peru produces about 20% of world fish meal in an average year; 2026 output is severely reduced by El Niño. |\n| **Top Consumer** | **China** — the world's dominant fish-meal import and consumption market. |\n| **Key Port / Chokepoint** | **Peru's North-Central anchovy fishery — the systemic chokepoint.** Callao and Chimbote are the major export nodes; fish availability and quota determine global supply first. |\n\n**Classification scale:** Sector relevance = Primary / Material / Limited /\nNone. Risk = Low / Moderate / High. A **Key Port / Chokepoint** designation\nidentifies the point whose prolonged disruption materially affects\ninternational supply.\n\n## What is it?\n\nFish meal is a dry, concentrated protein feed made from whole fish, fish\ntrimmings, and processing by-products.\n\nIndustrial fish meal contains high-quality protein, essential amino acids,\nminerals, and residual marine lipids. Premium grades serve aquaculture,\nwhile standard grades enter livestock, poultry, pet food, and other feed\nmarkets.\n\nPeruvian fish meal relies heavily on **anchoveta**, a small pelagic fish\nfrom the Humboldt Current ecosystem.\n\n## How is it made?\n\nFresh fish must reach processing plants quickly.\n\nThe standard reduction process is:\n\n1. **Cook** the fish to coagulate protein and release water and oil.\n2. **Press** the cooked material to separate solids from liquid.\n3. **Separate fish oil and soluble fractions** from the press liquor.\n4. **Dry** the solid material under controlled temperature.\n5. **Grind** it into a uniform meal.\n6. **Stabilize** the oil-containing product with approved antioxidants\n   where required.\n7. **Bag, containerize, or load in bulk** for storage and transport.\n\nFish oil is produced alongside fish meal, making the economics of the two\nproducts interconnected.\n\n## Where is it produced?\n\nIFFO reports that global fish-meal supply has remained **above 5.1 MMT\nannually in recent years**.\n\nProduction comes from:\n\n- Peru\n- China\n- Chile\n- Vietnam and Thailand\n- Norway, Denmark, Iceland, and other North Atlantic producers\n- United States\n- Morocco and other African producers\n- fish-processing by-product industries worldwide\n\n**Peru supplies about 20% of global fish meal and fish oil in an average\nyear**, making its anchovy fishery uniquely important to the global\nbalance.\n\n## Notable sources & producers\n\n| Source / producer | Strategic significance |\n|---|---|\n| **Peru North-Central anchoveta fishery** | The world's most important individual fish-meal raw-material system; 2026 first-season quota was 1.914 MMT. |\n| **TASA — Peru** | Peru's largest fish-meal and fish-oil producer/exporter; fish-meal production capacity exceeds **600,000 tonnes/year**. |\n| **Copeinca, Exalmar, Hayduk, Diamante — Peru** | Major industrial fishing and reduction operators within the Peruvian anchovy system. |\n| **Camanchaca — Chile** | Operates fish-meal/fish-oil plants at Iquique and Coronel, using anchoveta, sardine, and other pelagic resources. |\n| **North Atlantic producers** | Norway, Denmark, Iceland, and regional processors diversify supply with pelagic fisheries and processing by-products. |\n| **Chinese domestic producers** | Large domestic production base, but China still carries a structural import deficit. |\n\n## What is it used for?\n\nFish meal supplies concentrated protein to:\n\n- shrimp feed\n- salmon and other finfish aquaculture\n- marine fish hatcheries\n- poultry and swine feed\n- pet food\n- young-animal and specialty diets\n\nAquaculture is the strategic demand center. Fish meal supports growth, feed\nefficiency, palatability, and nutrient density in high-performance feeds.\n\n## Why is it important?\n\nFish meal compresses a high-quality marine protein into a shelf-stable feed\ningredient.\n\nThe aquaculture industry has reduced fish-meal inclusion rates over time,\nbut expanding global aquaculture keeps total demand strong. China,\nSoutheast Asia, Norway, Ecuador, and other aquaculture centers require\nmarine ingredients for shrimp, salmon, and fish production.\n\nThe market is also connected directly to terrestrial agriculture. When fish\nmeal becomes scarce, feed formulators increase soybean meal, canola meal,\npoultry by-product meal, and other proteins.\n\nThe **1972–73 Peruvian anchovy collapse** demonstrated this link. El Niño\ndestroyed a major fish-meal supply source, forcing feed demand toward\nvegetable protein and contributing to the 1973 U.S. soybean export-control\ncrisis.\n\n## Is there a substitute?\n\n**Yes. Fish meal is substitutable, but premium functions carry a price.**\n\nMajor alternatives include:\n\n- soybean meal\n- canola meal\n- sunflower meal\n- poultry by-product meal\n- meat and bone meal\n- DDGS\n- insect protein\n- single-cell and microbial proteins\n- algae-derived ingredients\n- concentrated plant proteins and synthetic amino acids\n\nFeed formulators can reduce fish-meal inclusion. Replacement becomes harder\nin early-life-stage aquaculture and high-performance diets where\ndigestibility, amino-acid balance, palatability, minerals, and marine\nnutrients matter simultaneously.\n\n## How is it transported?\n\nRaw fish moves rapidly by vessel or truck to nearby reduction plants\nbecause spoilage begins quickly.\n\nFinished fish meal moves:\n\n**plant → truck → port → bag/container/bulk vessel → import terminal →\ntruck/rail → feed mill**\n\nPeruvian exports use ports including **Callao, Chimbote, Paita, and\nPisco**. China is the dominant destination.\n\nCamanchaca sells fish meal in 25-kg bags, 1.2-tonne jumbo bags, and bulk\nform, illustrating the industry's main shipment formats.\n\n## Transportation risks\n\n### Self-heating at sea\n\nFish meal contains residual fat. Oxidation can generate heat during long\nvoyages.\n\nStabilized fish meal falls under specific maritime dangerous-goods\nprovisions. U.S. rules require defined antioxidant treatment for applicable\nshipments. ICAO analysis identifies long-duration marine transport as the\nprimary self-heating exposure.\n\n### Peru's coastal infrastructure\n\nRoads, plants, ports, power, and vessel availability affect export flow,\nbut the primary bottleneck remains **the catch itself**: plants and ports\nrun only as fast as the fishery delivers.\n\n### Pacific trade lane\n\nChina-bound cargo depends on container and dry-bulk availability, freight\nrates, port congestion, and uninterrupted Pacific shipping.\n\n## How long does it store?\n\nProperly stabilized fish meal stores **up to one year** without\nself-heating under controlled conditions.\n\nStorage requires:\n\n- cool, dry conditions\n- moisture control\n- antioxidant stabilization\n- protection from contamination\n- ventilation and temperature monitoring\n- separation from incompatible cargo where regulations require it\n\nThe major quality risks are **oxidation, rancidity, moisture uptake,\nmicrobial contamination, and self-heating**.\n\n## Historical price behavior\n\nWorld Bank fish-meal benchmark, 64–65% protein, C&F Europe:\n\n| Month | USD/metric tonne |\n|---|---:|\n| Jul. 2021 | $1,504 |\n| Jul. 2022 | $1,581 |\n| Jul. 2023 | $1,879 |\n| Jul. 2024 | $1,739 |\n| Jul. 2025 | $1,722 |\n| **Jul. 2026** | **$2,105** |\n\nThe 2023 El Niño disruption drove prices sharply higher after Peru\ncancelled the first North-Central fishing season.\n\nSupply recovered in 2024–25, then tightened again in 2026 as lower Peruvian\nand Chilean quotas collided with renewed El Niño disruption and strong\nChinese aquaculture demand.\n\n## Current price & market — August 28, 2026\n\n| Market reference | Current level |\n|---|---:|\n| **World Bank fish-meal benchmark — July** | **$2,105/mt** |\n| **Peruvian Super fish meal in China — Aug. 26** | **RMB 22,400–22,500/mt** |\n| **Chinese domestic fish meal 63/150 — Aug. 26** | **RMB 18,800/mt** |\n| **China port inventory — Aug. 26** | **136,470 mt** |\n\nFAO reported **Super Prime FOB Peru at $2,500/mt in May 2026**, compared\nwith about $1,400 one year earlier.\n\nThe supply picture deteriorated after that price assessment.\n\nPeru authorized a **1,914,049-tonne first-season North-Central anchovy\nquota**, then repeatedly closed fishing areas as El Niño altered fish\ndistribution and juvenile presence. Fishing was suspended June 10 after\nonly **about 25% of quota had been caught**.\n\nOn August 24, Peru declared the national fishing and aquaculture sectors in\nemergency for **120 days** in response to El Niño 2026–27.\n\nChina Feed Online's August 26 assessment placed imported Peruvian Super\nfish meal at **RMB 22,400–22,500/mt**, with Chinese port stocks at 136,470\ntonnes.\n\n**Current-price links:**\n[World Bank Commodity Prices](https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets) ·\n[FAO GLOBEFISH Fishmeal and Fish Oil](https://www.fao.org/in-action/globefish/market-reports/fishmeal-and-fish-oil/en/)\n\n## Strategic risks\n\n1. **Peru concentration** — One country's fishery supplies about one-fifth\n   of normal global fish-meal output.\n2. **El Niño exposure** — Ocean temperature changes alter anchovy location,\n   depth, recruitment, spawning, and catchability.\n3. **Quota dependence** — Governments can close a season immediately to\n   protect biomass or juveniles.\n4. **China concentration** — China took 78% of Peru's 2025 exports and\n   remains the dominant global import market.\n5. **Aquaculture growth** — Strong shrimp and fish production maintains\n   demand even as feed formulators lower inclusion rates.\n6. **Protein substitution** — Fish-meal scarcity transfers demand into\n   soybean meal, canola meal, animal proteins, and emerging alternatives.\n7. **Biological recovery time** — Biomass recovery runs on ecological\n   time. Rebuilding a fish population takes years, however much industrial\n   capacity stands ready.\n\n## What can move the market?\n\nWatch:\n\n- Peruvian ENFEN and IMARPE ocean/biomass assessments\n- North-Central anchovy quotas\n- El Niño intensity\n- juvenile anchovy and spawning closures\n- Chilean anchovy/sardine quotas\n- Chinese aquaculture feed production\n- China port inventories\n- soybean-meal prices\n- shrimp and salmon margins\n- Peruvian export prices\n- fish-oil prices and yields\n\n## Xin.bz bottom line\n\nFish meal is a rare commodity where the true strategic asset is **a living\nbiomass**.\n\nFactories, ports, vessels, and storage all depend on one input only the\nocean provides: anchoveta. Peru's Humboldt Current ecosystem determines\nwhether roughly one-fifth of normal global fish-meal supply is available.\n\nThat makes El Niño a direct commodity-market force.\n\nThe 2026 season demonstrates the mechanism: Peru set a 1.914-MMT quota,\ncaught only about one-quarter before suspension, entered a national\nfisheries emergency, and global benchmark prices rose above $2,100 per\ntonne.\n\nThe shock travels beyond aquaculture. Fish-meal scarcity shifts feed\ndemand toward soybeans and other proteins, transmitting an ocean event into\nagricultural commodity markets.\n\n**Fish meal is therefore both a marine commodity and a bridge between\nclimate, fisheries biology, aquaculture, livestock feed, and global protein\nprices.**\n\n## Sources / market data\n\n- IFFO — The Marine Ingredients Organisation. \"Market Statistics.\"\n- IFFO. \"Amid Coastal El Niño, Fishmeal and Fish Oil Output Remains Weak.\" 20 Aug. 2026.\n- IFFO. \"Peru Represents on Average 20% of Global FMFO Production.\" Aug. 2026.\n- Ministerio de la Producción, Perú. \"Gobierno declara en emergencia los subsectores pesca y acuicultura por 120 días ante el Fenómeno El Niño.\" 24 Aug. 2026.\n- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, GLOBEFISH. \"China Demand and Lower Quotas Lift Fishmeal and Fish Oil Prices.\" 23 July 2026.\n- China Feed Online. \"Weekly Update #33-34/2026.\" 26 Aug. 2026.\n- World Bank. *Commodity Price Data — Fish Meal*. July 2026.\n- TASA. \"Productos y Servicios.\"\n- Camanchaca. \"Harina de Pescado.\"\n- U.S. Department of Transportation. *49 CFR §173.218 — Fish Meal or Fish Scrap*.\n- International Civil Aviation Organization. *DGP-WG/19-WP/20 — Fish Meal / Fish Scrap Transport Classification*.\n- Reuters. \"El Niño Puts 1.2 Million People at Risk in Peru, Authorities Say.\" 27 Aug. 2026.\n\n*Price note: World Bank benchmark, FOB Peru, CNF/CFR import offers, and\nChinese domestic RMB prices represent different grades, locations, freight\nterms, and protein specifications and are not directly interchangeable.*"
}